Missing Record: Dropped and Added References in NBER Working Paper Series 2000-2009

What leads to creativity? By comparing the bibliographies in the working papers and their published counterparts in the NBER Working Paper series from 2000-2009, this paper analyzes how references end up being added or dropped in order to shine light on the academic creative process. The paper discovers substantial add and drop rates across working and published papers. In particular, it suggests with 95% confidence that across the ten years, the aggregate drop rate percentages are in the range (22.190, 22.198), and that the aggregate add rate percentages are in the range (30.982, 30.983). This paper points out the important missing record in bibliographic data currently, and hopes to encourage future work investigating the dynamics and biases in this add and drop process.