An econometric analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Caribbean tourism industry

The COVID-19 pandemic had a profound and long-lasting impact on the economies of the world. One of the industries that was substantially affected by the pandemic is the tourism sector. One such case study is that of the Caribbean countries, which have a high economic reliance on tourism and thereby have been especially susceptible to the negative financial consequences of the COVID-19 outbreak. Therefore, studying the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Caribbean economy represents an opportunity to analyze the immediate and long-term effects of a health crisis on similar tourism-dependent regions and may help shape predictions about how future pandemic events will affect tourism. This project seeks to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism industry in the context of the Caribbean region. First, through the investigation of the real-world data, we wish to quantitatively identify the economic effects of the COVID-19 outbreak on the tourist-dependent Caribbean economy. We analyze key economic metrics pertinent to tourism, such as number of visitors, changes in revenue, duration (e.g., overnight; same-day) and mode of travel (e.g., flight; cruise) that we expect to be timely correlated with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, we attempt to estimate the direct impact of COVID-19 cases, deaths and mortality on the Caribbean economy in order to better understand the financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism industry. Second, we wish to formulate a predictive estimate for future changes in key economic variables associated with COVID-19 rates leveraging the results found in the first part of this project. We present this model and other economic insights by building data visualizations and plots through the use of software programming in order to provide a clear understanding of the impact of a health crisis on the tourism sector.