Estimating Storm Surge Probability Distributions and their Associated Economic Damages Using NOAA Tidal Data Along the American Atlantic Coast

Author: 
Kelvin Kang
Adviser(s): 
Robert Mendelsohn
Abstract: 

As extreme weather events become increasingly common and intense due to climate change, it is imperative that there exist accurate models of potential flooding for coastal communities across the United States. This project utilizes information collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to estimate the probability distributions of storm surges at NOAA tidal stations along the American Atlantic Coast, building upon a previously developed procedure that utilizes historical tidal wave data to make estimates for the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions used to model storm surge activity. Following this methodology yielded information for 41 tidal stations along the US East Coast, but new methods were required to make predictions for locations without abundant historical data. Eventually, a new methodology was developed to make estimates for 73 additional locations using daily tidal information collected by the NOAA, bringing the total number of locations with reasonable storm surge estimates to 114. With this new information, estimates for the expected annual economic damages associated with these storm surges were calculated for all locations with available data.

The results of this project provide a more comprehensive understanding of storm surge activity along the Eastern Seaboard and expand the set of locations for which there are reasonable models for future storm surge activity. This information could prove useful in shaping future policy decisions regarding development in coastal areas, as well as helping develop better flood insurance policies. With more locations for which there are reasonable models for future storm surge activity, this could also be further expanded upon to provide more accurate predictions of storm surge activity along the Atlantic coastline, not contingent on proximity to an NOAA tidal station.

Term: 
Spring 2024